Strong magnetic storms possible on Earth in the next 4 years

Solar activity: after the 2025 peak, we expect four years of gradual decline with possible powerful flares and magnetic storms. This forecast was voiced by Sergey Bogachev, head of the Solar Astronomy Laboratory at IKI RAS, in an interview with RIA Novosti.

"The cycle will slowly decline for about four years. And during this period, unexpected, very powerful events, strong flares and storms are possible," the scientist warned.

History confirms this pattern: the record flare of this century occurred in 2003 - two years after the cycle peak, and the most powerful flare of the next cycle was recorded in 2017, three years after the activity maximum.

Bogachev drew an interesting parallel between solar cycles and Earth's climate - just as May snow can unexpectedly fall on Earth, anomalous flares can occur during the general decline in solar activity. Only two to three years are typically truly "quiet." In the current cycle, according to forecasts, the calm period will come in 2029-2030 and may partially extend into 2031.

Processes on the Sun directly affect the operation of satellites, power systems, and human health, which is why scientists from Perm Polytech and the Polytechnic School have created a unique model capable of predicting solar activity 11 years ahead. This was reported to "Gazeta.Ru" by the press service of the scientific institution.

The project leader, PNIPU master's student Georgy Tashkinov, noted that their calculations allow them to reproduce the 11-year cycles of solar activity with impressive accuracy - over 90% compared to historical data for the past 40-50 years.