By 2100, more than 40% of Earth"s land area faces the threat of drought

Drought is advancing: scientists have warned that by the end of the century, more than 40% of all the planet's land area could turn into arid lands, although rising carbon dioxide concentrations may partially slow this process.

The results of the study have been published in the journal Environmental Research Letters (ERL).

Arid lands are territories where evaporation significantly exceeds the amount of precipitation. They include deserts, semi-deserts, and dry steppes. Life in such territories is extremely vulnerable to droughts and soil degradation, and the expansion of these zones threatens agriculture and water supply for billions of people around the world.

Specialists from the Chinese Academy of Forestry analyzed climate data for the period from 1994 to 2023 and compiled a forecast for 2071–2100. Currently, arid lands occupy approximately 38.58% of the land area (excluding Antarctica). According to calculations, by the end of the century their share will increase to 39.31–40.28%.

In absolute figures, this represents an addition of approximately 2.37 million square kilometers — an area comparable in size to Algeria. Australia will be the most affected, where the expansion of arid zones will be the most extensive.

Notably, the new forecast turned out to be significantly milder than previous estimates: earlier, scientists suggested that arid lands could cover up to 56% of the land area. Such a substantial difference is explained by the fact that the authors took into account the impact of rising CO2 levels, which st