25 Aug , 19:34
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American intelligence raises alarm: five global hotspots could lead to global conflicts. As reported by TUT.AZ with reference to Politico, experts have identified several regions where local confrontations threaten to escalate into large-scale crises in the next five years.
According to the published forecast, India and Pakistan top the list of territories with the highest risk of nuclear confrontation. The key factors of tension are the long-standing Kashmir dispute and comparable nuclear capabilities of the two powers. Pakistan's military doctrine, which allows for a quick transition to the use of nuclear weapons, causes particular concern.
On the horizon loom two potential conflicts involving China. The first is related to a possible confrontation over Taiwan, which, according to analysts, will be a serious test for the world order and a check of American commitments to allies. The second hotspot of tension is the border conflict with India, rooted in the colonial past. Here, there remains a high probability of escalation due to the lack of effective deterrence mechanisms and deep mutual distrust.
Western experts are also considering a scenario of Russia attacking the Baltic states, which would be a critical test for NATO and could undermine confidence in the Western security guarantee system.
In North Korea, the internal instability of Kim Jong-un's regime combined with the active development of a nuclear program makes a potential crisis extremely unpredictable in its consequences.